The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool places the chance of a .25 rate cut in September at 86.4%. If this week’s July CPI report comes above the June pace of 2.72% year over year, the cost of essentials like groceries, gas, and rent will remain stubbornly high.

Wholesale prices in the United States rose sharply in July, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report released Thursday, raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve may hold off on cutting interest rates in September.

A jump in wholesale prices is likely to bolster concerns among Federal Reserve policymakers that rising inflation remains a risk, intensifying debate over the wisdom of a rate cut at their September meeting and leaving the tension between the U.