The initial round of Israeli attacks sent oil prices 7 percent higher on Friday. Still, at about $74 a barrel, Brent crude remains below the $80 average for 2024, the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. The market continued to waver, though, and by Monday, oil prices had fallen about 3 percent.

On Friday, oil prices surged more than they have in three years. Iran, the third biggest OPEC producer (despite US sanctions), pumps around 3.3 million barrels a day of crude oil and exports roughly 1.7 million barrels a day. The loss of this export supply would wipe out the surplus that was expected in the fourth quarter of this year.

Oil prices fell and stocks climbed in early trading on Monday, indicating optimism among investors about the limits of economic fallout from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 415 points, or 1%, erasing much of the losses suffered on Friday as back-and-forth strikes broke out between the two countries.