Isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms are expected today, especially to the north and west of Tucson. The attached loop is from the Storm Predictions Center and depicts the HREF (Hi-resolution ensemble forecast) probability of outflow winds in excess of 30 knots. The higher probabilities indicate the most likely areas for strong outflows. What is not shown, is the 10-30 percent probability of winds in excess of 50 knots in the bullseye of the image. Strong outflows like these will be capable o

At 3:28 pm, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east through south of Tucson. Movement was southwest around 10 mph. Gusty winds to 40 mph and moderate to heavy rainfall with the strongest storms. The storms have the potential to strengthen later today. | US National Weather Service Tucson Arizona

🌵🌧️The combination of mid and high level moisture along with some weak lift aloft will result in scattered light showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly southeast of Tucson today. A low pressure system tracking through Sonora Mexico will result in a slight chance of showers Sunday into Monday along the International Border. Rainfall amounts will have little to no impact this weekend. | US National Weather Service Tucson Arizona